Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects

Demand forecasting is critical to sales and operations planning (S&OP), but the effects of sales promotions can be difficult to forecast. Typically, a baseline statistical forecast is judgmentally adjusted on receipt of information from different departments. However, much of this information either has no predictive value or its value is unknown. Research into base rate discounting has suggested that such information may distract forecasters from the average uplift and reduce accuracy. This has been investigated in situations in which forecasters were able to adjust the statistical forecasts for promotions via a forecasting support system (FSS). In two ecologically valid experiments, forecasters were provided with the mean level of promotion uplift, a baseline statistical forecast, and quantitative and qualitative information. However, the forecasters were distracted from the base rate and misinterpreted the information available to them. These findings have important implications for the design of organizational S&OP processes, and for the implementation of FSSs.     

The effect of diplomatic representation on trade: A panel data analysis

This study addresses current gaps in the empirical literature regarding the effect of diplomatic representation on trade using a panel data set for 100 countries with 5‐year interval data from 1985 to 2005 and four‐digit level industry data. The results indicate that the effect of diplomatic representation on exports in differentiated goods is positive and significant and larger than on exports in homogeneous goods on average, but not statistically different from it. Furthermore, diplomatic representation only increases trade along the extensive margin and not along the intensive margin. The results indicate that diplomatic representation is effective in performing its function as a network search intermediary and that it is a useful policy tool to alleviate market failure.     

ERP与MRO系统集成过程建模与应用研究

为了实现产品生产阶段到服务阶段业务与数据的有效集成,从业务层和数据层对制造服务系统中的大修维护维修(MRO)与企业资源计划(ERP)的集成过程进行了建模与分析,对ERP与MRO系统之间的业务过程和信息交互过程进行了分析,建立了二者的业务集成框架模型,分析了ERP与MRO系统的数据结构转换过程,提出了二者数据集成模型。应用Web Services完成了ERP与MRO的系统集成开发,包括服务BOM集成、备品备件管理集成等。研究结果实现了制造和服务阶段关键产品数据信息的集成与反馈,打通了从制造到服务阶段的数据传递与集成,对进一步研究复杂产品生命周期管理的信息集成具有一定的借鉴意义。     

邻近性与创新合作：最新研究进展

自邻近性理论提出以来，邻近性在创新合作网络及其演化中的作用得到了很多学者的关注，相关研究丰富而庞杂。从邻近性因素对创新合作的影响、邻近性因素在创新合作中的相互作用以及创新合作对邻近性因素的影响等方面梳理了当前的研究进展，力图在邻近性因素与创新合作构成的复杂系统中厘清相互关系与动态作用机制。在此基础上，针对当前研究中尚未明晰和解决的问题，进一步提出了未来研究中有待持续深入的议题。     

海南省旅游业发展对经济增长的拉动效应研究

[目的]海南当前处于国际旅游岛建设和全面建成小康社会的关键时期,旅游业作为海南省的主导产业对海南经济发展的支撑作用显著增强,在此形势下,分析旅游业发展对海南经济增长的拉动效应,有利于为进一步提升旅游业对海南区域经济发展的影响,促进区域经济发展和经济结构转型,提出科学可行的对策和建议。[方法]文章从时间和空间两个维度,运用旅游业依存度、贡献率和拉动率3个指标,以旅游收入与地区生产总值等统计指标为基础,探讨了海南省旅游业对经济增长的拉动效应。[结果]从时间维度来看,海南省旅游业对地区经济增长的拉动作用进一步加大;从空间维度来看,海南省旅游业的拉动效应并不突出;从市(县)域维度来看,海南省各市(县)旅游业对经济增长拉动效应存在空间差异,东部地区拉动效应持续增长,中部地区增长势头迅猛,北部地区增长缓慢。[结论]不断完善海南旅游基础设施与管理体系;要不断细分和规范旅游产品,提升旅游产品的吸引力和复购率,完善营销及咨询服务体系;注意与其他产业的协调发展,加强与周边省份的交流与合作,省内要因地制宜,挖掘各地旅游业发展特色,推动各市(县)均衡发展,以进一步加强海南省旅游支柱产业的作用,并快速实现区域经济跨越式发展。     

Inflation,real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.     

区域经济发展不平衡与土地违法：基于地方政府经济增长激励的视角

研究目的:探究地方政府经济增长激励背景下,区域经济发展不平衡对土地违法行为的影响。研究方法:基于经济和社会科学领域有关发展不平衡及其影响效应的理论观点,结合中国特定的地方政府经济增长激励机制,以及土地利用与管理实际,探讨区域经济发展不平衡对土地违法行为的影响机理,并通过构建计量经济模型进行相应的实证检验。研究结果:区域内部经济发展差异的扩大确实会导致更多土地违法案件的产生和违法用地规模的增加;另外,在不同经济发展地区,区域内部经济发展差异变化对土地违法的具体影响有所不同。发达地区内部经济发展差异的扩大对土地违法的影响主要表现在违法面积上,而欠发达地区内部经济发展差异的扩大对土地违法的影响则主要表现在违法案件数上。研究结论:区域经济发展不平衡是导致土地违法行为的重要因素之一,促进和实现地区间的均衡发展有助于减少土地违法现象。     

The development trinity: How regional integration impacts growth,inequality and poverty

Developing countries today have become more active participants in regional trade agreements. This raises questions about how the benefits of integration are distributed, and the extent to which lower‐income countries are able to capture development gains. Historically, such impacts have been difficult to identify with precision. This paper seeks to address this gap by empirically analysing the impact of regional integration on development, particularly the effects on growth and welfare. Using both bilateral and regional integration measures, we show that the ability to capture gains from integration varies across developing country regional groups, with developing Asia benefiting on par with developed countries. The findings in the paper indicate that trade and trade policy play an important role in reducing inequality and poverty in developing countries. It also shows that regionalism can function as a channel to make multilateralism a more adept way of addressing national challenges.     

Food fraud: economic insights into the dark side of incentives

In this review, we contextualise the articles in this special issue, relating them to existing food fraud research, and identify food fraud research trends, challenges and priorities for the near term. We accomplish these aims through a comprehensive review of research by food scientists, economists, other social scientists, legal experts, government research groups and international trade organisations. Existing food fraud research is heavily weighted towards food science, packaging and labelling, and legal areas of knowledge discovery. Moving forward, research is needed pertaining to general economic welfare outcomes from food fraud incidences, economic incentives to deter frauds, economic spillovers from fraud incidences to other food products and markets (domestic and international) and further delineation of the effect of different types of food fraud on consumer and producer welfare. The articles in this special issue make significant contributions to understanding of the role of food fraud in consumer decisions, measuring consumer welfare losses from fraud, food fraud spillover effects to other markets and new frameworks for fraud analysis.